Jasmine Crockett
U.S. Congresswoman, TX-30
VS
James Talarico
Texas State Representative
Head-to-Head: By the Numbers
All-time Meta ad spending since campaign announcements. Includes official candidate pages only.
Total Ads
Crockett
229
Talarico
568
Estimated Ad Spend
Crockett
$1.97M–$2.38M
Talarico
$3.38M–$4.04M
Estimated Impressions
Crockett
30–37.6M
Talarico
37.8–78.3M
Attack Ads Against Each Other
Neither Candidate
$0
Neither candidate is running negative ads against the other on Meta — a notable contrast with the GOP primary.
Spending Breakdown by Source
Official candidate pages and outside groups. Talarico’s spending dominance on Meta is clear.
Strategy contrast: Talarico outspends Crockett roughly 1.7:1 on Meta. His strategy involves individual ad buys of $125K–$200K each — carpet-bombing with high-spend video ads. Crockett runs many small-to-medium variants of the same creative, testing different audiences. Talarico is buying reach through spend concentration; Crockett is buying reach through creative variety. Different playbooks, same platform.
Outside Spending: PACs & Organizations
Independent expenditure groups running Meta ads in this primary. Outside spending is asymmetric and significant.
| Page / Organization |
Type |
Stance |
Meta Spend |
Ads |
| Lone Star Rising PAC |
Super PAC |
Pro-Talarico |
$105K–$120K |
3 |
| Forward Blue |
Organization |
Negligible |
$500–$600 |
~2 |
| Pro-Crockett PAC Spending on Meta |
— |
$0 |
0 |
Lone Star Rising PAC — All 3 Ads (launched Jan 13, 2026)
“Meet James Talarico. He is: ✓ Standing up to Trump and Winning ✓ Capping the Cost of Insulin ✓ Raising Teacher Pay ✓ Expanding Medicaid”
Video ad promoting Talarico’s record on healthcare and education.
Video ad promoting Talarico as “standing up to Trump and winning.”
Off-Meta context matters: Lone Star Rising PAC’s total spending across all channels is approximately $930K, including $850K+ in media buys and $84K in direct mail. Funded by Simone Coxe, Susan Sarofim, and Don Henley. Talarico’s total ad spend across all platforms reaches ~$6.6M ($3.5M TV/digital + Meta). Crockett’s total estimated ad spend across all channels: ~$481K. The Meta spending gap of 1.7:1 significantly understates the total advertising gap across all platforms. Forward Texas PAC has filed FEC paperwork supporting Crockett but has not appeared in Meta ad data.
Weekly Ad Volume
New ads launched per week with estimated spend. Crockett entered late (Dec 8) but ramped aggressively. Talarico has sustained high-spend buys since September.
Messaging Strategy Comparison
Top keywords from each candidate’s ad copy reveal fundamentally different campaign strategies.
Framing: Opposition-driven messaging — fighting ICE funding, impeaching Kristi Noem, challenging the “status quo.” Also runs Spanish-language ads and touts internal poll numbers (leading 46–33).
Framing: Overwhelmingly fundraising-focused with urgency framing. Promotes town halls across Texas. References “billionaire mega-donors” as opponents. Heavy video ad usage (many ads classified as “no text” because they are video-only).
Sample Ads: Side by Side
Representative ad creative from each candidate’s official page and affiliated outside groups.
Crockett Campaign Ads
“No amount of money is going to stop me from fighting for the American Dream. This is about TEXAS, and we’re just getting started. Now or never.”
Representative recent ad • Positive / mobilization
“I refuse to sit back and watch the American Dream disappear. We are fighting back — against ICE raids, against attacks on our schools, against an administration that doesn’t care about working families.”
Opposition framing • Policy-focused
“BREAKING: New poll shows Jasmine Crockett leading James Talarico 46–33 in the Texas Senate Democratic Primary.”
Momentum / polling ad
Also runs Spanish-language ads targeting Texas Hispanic communities — a notable difference from Talarico’s English-only ad portfolio.
Talarico Campaign Ads
“The billionaire mega-donors backing my opponent just dropped another $1 million. We need 500 grassroots donors to fight back before midnight.”
Representative fundraising ad • Urgency framing
“Town Hall with James Talarico! Join us to talk about the issues that matter to Texas families.”
Event promotion • Statewide tour
“Meet James Talarico. He is: ✓ Standing up to Trump and Winning ✓ Capping the Cost of Insulin ✓ Raising Teacher Pay ✓ Expanding Medicaid”
Heavy use of video ads with individual buys of $125K–$200K each. Many ads appear as “no text” in the Ad Library because the content is entirely video-based.
Geographic Targeting: National Fundraising Play
Where ad impressions are actually being delivered. Both candidates send the majority of their Meta impressions out of state.
National fundraising, not Texas persuasion: Both candidates send roughly 75% of Meta impressions out of state. This contrasts sharply with the GOP primary, where Cornyn and Hunt deliver 95%+ of impressions to Texas voters. For both Democratic candidates, Meta serves as a national donor acquisition channel. The actual voter contact is happening through other channels — TV, direct mail, field operations, and earned media.
Audience Demographics
Age and gender distribution of users who saw each candidate’s ads. Reflects delivery, not necessarily targeting.
Age Distribution
Age gap: Crockett’s audience skews heavily toward 65+ (55%), consistent with her national profile among older Democratic donors. Talarico reaches a broader age distribution, with notably more traction in the 35–54 range. His video-heavy strategy may be driving younger engagement.
Gender Distribution
Gender split: Crockett’s ads reach a heavily female audience (70/30), likely reflecting both her national profile among women Democratic donors and algorithmic optimization toward her strongest engagement cohort. Talarico reaches a more balanced gender split (52% male, 48% female).
Strategic Takeaway
1. Talarico is carpet-bombing Meta. With $3.38M–$4.04M in Meta spend across 568 ads, Talarico is running one of the most expensive Meta ad campaigns in any 2026 Senate primary. His strategy relies on high-spend individual ad buys ($125K–$200K each) concentrated on video content. Across all platforms, his total ad spend reaches ~$6.6M. This is a money primary, and Talarico is trying to win it through overwhelming volume.
2. Crockett is a late entrant playing catch-up. She entered the race after Colin Allred dropped out on December 8, 2025. Her Dec 8 burst (48 ads, $332K) and late January push (33 ads, $106K) show an aggressive ramp-up. But her all-time Meta spend of $1.97M–$2.38M is roughly half of Talarico’s, and her total ad spend across all platforms (~$481K) reveals the true gap. She has been in the race less than two months; he has been running since September 2025.
3. Neither attacks the other — yet. Unlike the GOP primary, where Cornyn funds a dedicated “Crooked Ken” attack page, neither Democratic candidate is running negative ads on Meta. Both are focused on positive messaging and fundraising. With early voting starting February 17, this could change — or it could suggest both campaigns calculate that going negative risks alienating the shared Democratic base needed for a general election against the GOP nominee.
4. Outside spending is asymmetric and significant. Lone Star Rising PAC has deployed $105K–$120K on Meta (3 ads, all Jan 13) and ~$930K total across all channels, all supporting Talarico. No comparable PAC spending exists for Crockett on Meta. Forward Texas PAC has filed for Crockett but has not materialized in ad data. This is a meaningful structural advantage for Talarico.
5. Both candidates use Meta for national fundraising, not Texas persuasion. Geographic delivery data shows both Crockett and Talarico send ~75% of Meta impressions out of state (California, New York, Georgia). This contrasts with the GOP primary, where Cornyn targets 95%+ Texas delivery. For the Democratic candidates, Meta is a donor acquisition channel. Texas voter persuasion is happening elsewhere.
6. The polling paradox. Despite Talarico’s massive spending advantage, Emerson polling shows a competitive race (Talarico 47%, Crockett 38%). Crockett’s national profile as a congresswoman — viral House floor speeches, high media visibility — may be providing earned media value that money cannot buy. Whether Talarico’s spending advantage translates to a primary win remains the central question of this race.
Methodology
This analysis is based on data from Meta’s Ad Library API, which tracks all ads about social issues, elections, or politics running on Facebook and Instagram. Spend figures are reported as ranges, not exact amounts — Meta rounds to the nearest threshold. Impression counts are estimates. Keyword searches may miss ads that use different terminology or rely solely on video/image content without searchable text.
Demographic data reflects who saw the ads (delivery), not necessarily who was targeted. Meta’s algorithm optimizes delivery, so demographic skews may reflect algorithmic choices as much as advertiser intent.
Geographic delivery percentages shown for individual ads represent Meta’s reporting of where impressions were served. National distribution patterns in a Texas Senate race indicate out-of-state donor targeting, a common strategy for both parties’ primary candidates.
Off-platform spending data is sourced from FEC filings, AdImpact tracking reports, and news coverage from the Texas Tribune, Dallas Morning News, and Houston Chronicle. Lone Star Rising PAC figures include FEC-reported media buys and direct mail expenditures.
Data retrieved February 3, 2026.